WILL BC BE A TEENY SPEED BUMP ON CLEMSON'S ROAD TO THE BCS?

Over the years, I have defended the BCS many, many times. I find it really enjoyable that week one of the season really can make or break a team's chances, and that out of conference games are high-risk, high-reward for teams going into conference slates. You know, except Boise State, a team whom I really, really like to troll for their crappy schedule.

Right now, we actually have one hell of a logjam up top in the various polls, and the next two months of the season are going to be an awesome roshambo of do or die football. Now, we are still two weeks out from the first official BCS poll (which will come in mid-October), but reading the tea-leaves, it isn't crazy to believe that - if all teams hold serve over the next few weeks - the rankings won't be too far off from where the USA Today poll currently stands.

The last few years have given us the inevitable undefeated SEC champion as one of the contenders in the BCS National Championship game. There's just as good a chance that it happens again this year, but the challenger may be cut from a different conference cloth than in years past. Believe it or not, Clemson may be in the driver's seat to get to New Orleans in January (you know, assuming we don't knock them off this weekend #LaughingAndCrying).

Here's a conference breakdown of undefeated teams in the top #25 (with Coaches Poll rankings, since those factor in to BCS ranks):

Big 12: #1 Oklahoma 4-0; #7 Oklahoma State 4-0; #10 Texas 4-0; #21 Kansas State 4-0
SEC: #2 LSU 5-0; #3 Alabama 5-0;
Pac-12: #4 Stanford 4-0
B1G: #5 Wisconsin 5-0; #11 Michigan 5-0; #16 Illinois 5-0;
[I Forget Which Conference This Week]: #6 Boise State 4-0
ACC: #8 Clemson 5-0; #13 Georgia Tech 5-0

At this point of the season, there are so many new and creative ways each of these schools could lose. LSU and 'Bama match up on November 5th, and only one will get to the SEC title game to earn another valuable win over whomever the SEC East can offer up - which of course is always as good a team that really could shock either the Tigers or the Tide. SOklahoma has the Red River Shootout on the schedule, and the Sooners have to go to Stillwater that last weekend as the de facto Big 12 title match.

That's not the only factor for the top two spots as strength of schedule comes into play. Wisconsin's path may be too easy given that they already have their signature win of the season over Nebraska and the Badgers miss Michigan in the regular season since they are a part of separate divisions* (plus, travelling to Illinois is really not as bad as it seems since the Illini have Arizona State and Northwestern as its real wins). Even facing the Wolverines in the first ever B1G title game may not be enough. Stanford faces Oregon at home in early November, but they will likely be so untested in the rest of their Pac-12 state, the case could certainly be made that they'll stall out at #5 - without the chance of a title game rematch.

*I did have to look up the divisions for the B1G Ten. We always do.

Clemson, a nation hoping for surprising BCSNC competitors turns its lonely eyes to you. Three touchdown favorites against our Eagles this weekend, an honor earned not just because BC is horrible, but also because of back-to-back-to-back wins against Auburn, Florida State and Virginia Tech (the latter in a rain-soaked Blacksburg). Outside of the late October trip to Atlanta and the Palmetto State Showdown with USCe, the Tigers won't really be tested until the ACCCG and a likely rematch with 19-time-defending-ACC-champion VaTech.

With all those ranked teams - many of whom have seen top ten action already this season - if they go undefeated, you'd have to imagine them no worse than third behind the winner of LSU/Bama and Wisconsin, but of all these teams, they may have the best road from here on out. The biggest test left is likely the team they already beat by 20 points on the road if they can avoid a trap from the Yellow Jackets.

New Orleans may need to prepare for an infusion of $2 bills and IPTAY shirts.

Is this post an elaborate jinx on the Tigers? You'll never know. But all I know is we have two really exciting months of football ahead of us, across every conference, every corner of the country.

Tosh, Notre Dame and Gameday Week 2

We here at Heights and Lows endorse any cheap shots at ND. Enjoy the morning games and see you at 8pm.

Three Games to Watch Outside of Chestnut Hill

Touchdown, by Flickr user CSS01

An old favorite makes its return to the blog: the three games post. DL will be at the game, but if you're like Doug and watching the game from your couch, here are a few other games going on the rest of the day to keep you from accomplishing anything else at all.

Also, we use AP rankings around here until the BCS rankings debut in October, for your reference point. All times ET, because that's where we live.

#3 Oregon vs. #4 LSU (8pm, ABC) - Biggest game of the week, at least if you go by the Gameday presence. Oregon still is the team to beat in the Pac-[Number of Teams] and LSU wants to see if the Hat can take them back to the promised land. Hoping for lots of odd play calling, scrambling and points - this one should be absolutely entertaining.

#5 Boise State vs. #19 Georgia (8pm, ESPN - picture-in-picture) - When it comes to personal vendettas, I've picked on Boise State a lot over the last few years. That tradition continues as I eagerly, with schaedenfreude thoughts, tune in to the Chicken Sandwich game down in Atlanta on Saturday night. Like every year, Boise does a solid job at least adding one or two non-conference games that are blockbusters, to compensate for the sisters of the poor conference slate. The high rankings are just as often about the likelihood that Boise will go undefeated, and this is the test this year to see if that will continue. I never miss a chance to watch Boise blow it.

Miami at Maryland (Monday night, 8pm, ESPN) - The ACC/Labor Day tradition continues with a match-up of what's left of the Hurricanes and the new-look (literally) Terps under Randy Edsall. With both opponents on the slate and Mayland's attempt at a color-wheel look for Byrd Stadium, BC fans should tune in to see how the Eagles may match up.

What Were We Thinking: Conference Expansion Fever [From the Archives]

The benefit to us having kept this blog in existence even with a nearly four year layoff is that we have the benefit of a deep archive of the previous two years of posting. All of this includes a ridiculous amount of dated content, but on occasion, we have the joy of looking back and saying, "What Were We Thinking?"

It's the first day of the season, but with Texas A&M bolting the Big XII for somewhere (rumor has it they are outside the SEC's window holding up a boom box playing "In Your Eyes" on repeat until the answer), conference expansion is on the mind.

So we turn the clock back to July 2007, when I wrote the below post on the fever that can't be solved with more cowbell. Discuss and ask yourself. BYU to the Pac-whatever? Pitt the shoe-in as the B1G's 12th team?Louisville to the SEC? A column that relied on the back of the Indiana Jones movies that was before the fourth one came out so we didn't have the opportunity to make a "Nuke the Fridge" joke?

What were we thinking?!

You know it's late in July when the only thing that pundits have to go off of is a story from Des Moines. The Register reported that the introduction of the the Big Ten Network might be encouraging the conference to pick up the magic 12th team in order to gain a championship game.

I'm not writing this post to discuss what options the Big "Ten" has, because I feel like that has been done a lot already in these past few days in a few other places. I quickly want to point out what they are just so that everyone who happens across this can stay up to speed with some of my logic. The way I see it, there's three main scenarios. Just for fun, let's go with them as if they were Indiana Jones movies. 

Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade (The search for the Grail)
Convincing Notre Dame to stop its exclusive contract with NBC that it splits with nobody and forcing them to change their schedule to something marginally difficult is not an easy task. Remember, that with four OOC games (more on this later), ND would likely want to keep their traditional games against only the service academies and USC. But that's already a 12 game schedule! They go from having cupcakes to playing 3 or 4 teams that are sub-500, max. It's all about the money. Interesting take from the Ann Arbor News on the only way to make this work: ban Big Ten teams from scheduling ND in any sport.

Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom
In this scenario, please understand that Temple of Doom refers to the future of the Big East. There is no way that future expansion of any other conference will not affect the Big East v. 2.0. One of the reasons is that, since the Big Ten Network is driving this, the goal is to pick up an additional media market, but also one from a state that could be considered regional. Syracuse is not that crazy of a suggestion. Picking up the outlying New York City football fans (who would go nuts for Michigan and Ohio State), plus the interest from Buffalo might actually be considerable for the Orange, make Syracuse a realistic option. They were already thinking of leaving the Big East back with Miami and BC when VTech was offered at the 11th hour. If Syracuse leaves, the Big East will be reduced to six football schools and one of their biggest basketball powers absent. Sure, Syracuse football is down right now, but imagine how things would change. 

Indiana Jones and the Raiders of the Lost Ark
Any of the other dominoes of the Big Ten expansion would hit the Big East, but tons of conference raiding might go on to get there first. Pitt has also been thrown out because of its locale and in-state relationship with Penn State. Rutgers has been jokingly mentioned but they do have the NYC market. It could get worse. The Big Ten could try to get Missou or Iowa State (one for the media market, the other for the rivalry) to jump from the Big 12, who would try to get Arkansas to jump from the SEC, who would try to get Louisville to join Kentucky. Or even try to woo GT, Florida State or Clemson from the ACC who would then just go get Syracuse. Any major conference adjustment hurts the Big East. This also makes my head hurt. I don't see the Big Ten poaching from a conference that already has 12 members.

I actually want to take a step back and just say I can't believe that Indiana Jones thing worked. I just thought it would be funny to think of Charlie Weis as a dying, fatter Sean Connery for a second and look what happened.

Do I really think any of this could happen? To be honest, if expansion happens (something which I generously put at 75-25 in favor of the "No Chance in Hell"), I see it being Pitt or Syracuse, with Pitt edging out because of the Penn State factor, the stadium and facilities. If the Carrier Dome had actually been renovated in the last 20-plus years since it has been built, I'd be singing a different tune. But, as I think about it, I don't rule out 'cuse because I think New Yorkers would really bite on the chance to see Michigan, Wisco, Iowa (who played in Syracuse last year) or Ohio State. I just think the really need to change the name, though, from the Big Ten. 

Alright, so my quick recap got winded but there's a real purpose behind my writing this evening to discuss the other half of conference life: the in conference schedule.

Big Ten expansion could put pressure on the Pac 10 to expand. The Pac 10 has one option as I see it: getting Utah and BYU to join together to hit 12. That's the logical geographic idea and feasible for conference divisions. Just pick one from each of the pairs of schools (the Pac 10 is beautiful sometimes because of this). ASU, UCLA, Cal, Oregon State, Wash and BYU on one side, UofA, USC, Stan, Oregon, Wassu and Utah on the other. Regional rivals always play. Likewise for the other five teams in the division.

My gripe, though, is what happens next. The reason why I don't want the Pac-10 to expand is because they have it right, a true round robin. When the schedule expanded to 12 games permanently two years ago, they chose to use that extra game to have everyone play each other. In every other 12 team system (the ACC for example), you play three cross division opponents. In some years, this makes a huge difference. I pointed it out earlier in the week, but BC misses the three weakest teams in the Coastal - where there is a huge gap between the top three and the bottom three. Even picking up one while dropping the I-AA from the schedule wouldn't matter, but it would make things more fair in conference play. 

So, this endless rant of Harrison Ford and my Pac-10 affinity was for this point: 3 OOC games, not 4. It gives a division champion the ability to prove it. And you want a de facto playoff system? Surviving your conference should be enough, especially when the champion will have had 10 games against its own fraternity. Then, the two highest ranked conference champions play each other.

Sure, that leaves the mid majors (which the Big East will be after the conference shimmying) in a tough situation. They really have to pull their weight to be in play. Outside of Utah and Boise State, though, is this that common? Utah would be in the Pac-10 by this point anyway, in my head.

Conference expansion always interests me. I know its for the money. Almost everything in this industry is. But, I hope that a few folks up in Chicago think hard about making it about the game as well.

All things considered, I could have been significantly more wrong.

Three Games to Watch Outside of Jacksonville

Championship Edition

#7 LSU vs #14 Tennessee 4:00 p.m., CBS. SEC Championship in Atlanta, Georgia. Story this week that is not being mentioned nearly enough: LSU's defense. I'll leave my Les Miles jokes out of a post for once (even though I said it frickin' WEEKS ago that he'd be gone). Look past the Overtimes and you'll see that LSU has given up more points than their "Rock Solid Defense" will admit to. If you really need proof...watch the drive from last weekend's game when Darren McFadden decided he was going to take control and run the show. Why were they still playing zone coverage with the backers when its obvious that the only passes will be misdirection plays and simple man would do from the secondary?

Ainge is not McFadden, in any capacity, way, shape or form. But the Tigers did let Alabama stay in the game far too long in last month's game of Nick Saban's century. I don't think an LSU is even close to inevitable, and I am contemplating picking the upset in this one. Either way, its a shoot out and a race for 35 points.

#1 Missouri vs. #9 Oklahoma 8:00 p.m., ABC Big 12 Championship, San Antonio, Texas Story this week that isn't being mentioned enough: Oklahoma's offense. Everyone keeps playing the revenge card (see, Championship, ACC VT vs. BC) but is missing that Oklahoma has been able to respond incredibly well on offense this year behind Sam Bradford (Who? Exactly). Don't look now: he's only one TD behind Chase Daniel and has two less interceptions. The only difference is the yardage gap between the two Qubes, something that the Sooners have made up with a dual-back running game. When the high-powered Tiger offense went to Norman, Boomer Sooner outshot them 41-31. How is this being missed?

This isn't even an upset call (OK is favored over Missou, don't forget). Oklahoma goes back to the Fiesta Bowl. And if they get a WAC team again, you better believe they'll be paying attention.

#12 Hawaii at Washington 11:30 p.m., ESPN2. Hawaii's BCS Playoff. Fine, here it is. Here's your moment. Colt Brennan is already a final-five for the trophy. The Warriors beat last year's BCS darling. I mean, no one will be watching because of my favorite rule (on ESPN2 and after 10 p.m.). But, you know, here's your chance to get the spotlight.

Why is Hawaii not Boise State from last year? Where's the running game and the clever coaching and the grizzled pack of seniors who dragged the program up from nothing. Will I be upset if they make the BCS? No. Accomplishments deserve rewards. But, as a Pac-10 lover and a homer, I hope they lose to Ty and the gang. Because I don't think they are nearly as good as last year's Boise State team and the amount of times we'll see that clip of the Statue of Liberty and "Is it their turn?" just won't do it for me come New Year's Day.

I haven't decided how I'll be doing some bowl predictions. Probably preview a few of each week's bowl games. Thanks for sticking through the gimmicks.

And, for my homer side, I am incredibly frustrated by the inevitable conclusion that BC has no chance this weekend. Everyone seems to forget a rainy night in Blacksburg. Sure, BC did slump a little after that, but you don't think the lack-of-respect (AGAIN) thing is not going to give them motivation? GO EAGLES.

Three Games to Watch Outside of Chestnut Hill

Les Miles = Blue. And maize.

Virginia Tech at Virginia Noon, ESPN2. The Commonwealth Cup is incredibly important to BC fans because they will face the winner next weekend in the ACC Championship. I am still massively skeptical about VT's offense, even if it did perform well against Georgia Tech and they put up 44 on Miami. Chris Long and the rest of the Cavaliers - at home, on Senior Day - will be looking to end a long losing streak against their intrastate rival. What's the best case scenario for BC? Good weather in Jacksonville and another team to show up. I avoid biases as much as possible, but, as a resident of NoVa myself, I feel more compelled to cheer for the 'Hoos than the Hokies. Since I can't endorse cheering for injuries (at least not openly), put this game in PIP during the BC-Miami game.

Tennessee at Kentucky 1:30, CBS. If the Vols win, they get to play LSU. The question on that game, though, is which LSU shows up? Will they be inspired or will they quit on a lame duck coach (I'm still arguing hard that Les Miles is the choice for Michigan, in case you are wondering)? 12 hours ago, LSU lost their chance to play for the national championship at home and now is looking for what I assume will be a spot in the Roses or Fiesta (depending on what happens with the Big 12 Carousel these next few weeks). Playing in Pasadena doesn't have the lore for an SEC team that it does for the Pac-10 or BigTen. I'm giving this game to Tennessee and we'll see next week in Atlanta.

Kansas at Missouri 8 p.m. ESPN360. Yes, the game of the century isn't available on regular cable. Awesome. Let's break down some scenarios for the BCSCG. Kansas wins, beats Oklahoma next week, they go to New Orleans. Kansas wins, loses to Oklahoma next week, likely goes to the Orange Bowl after West Virginia goes to New Orleans. Missouri wins, beats Oklahoma, New Orleans. Missouri wins, loses to Oklahoma, its Ohio State-West Virginia in New Orleans; Oregon-LSU (last month's National Championship showdown) in Pasadena; Oklahoma-Hawaii in the Fiesta (have fun with the WAC, again, guys); ACC Champ-Kansas in the Oranges (I'm not gonna write it); Georgia/Tennessee-ACC Runner-up (if it's a BC-VT showdown in Jax) in the Sugar Bowl. Hawaii and the ACC Runner-up are the last two choices and could be flip flopped.

Oh, right, game analysis. Chase Daniel should win the Heisman if he can get to the National Championship, but I'm pretty sure the race is over after McFadden's performance last night. Tebow and McFadden are the two best players, but they haven't been able to guide their teams very far (neither will make a BCS, neither plays for the conference championship). Daniel has his team in the driver's seat with some impressive numbers. If he is the reason they win tonight, he's number one on my ballot. (Which I don't have)

I love this time of the Season.

Three Games To Watch Outside of Clemson

Yes. I got mine last night, but I don't think I was wrong. With Dixon out there, the Ducks were playing just fine. It was once they brought it SOMEONE RELATED TO RYAN LEAF that the wheels fell off. Right before that last drive (which stalled because of A) a late throw that gave the secondary time to cover and B) UofA's phenomenal line play) Leaf was 5/12 for about 50 yards and a pick for six the other way. The Ducks still only lost by 10. I stand by my belief that, with Dixon, they were the best team in the country. Now? I have no clue.

Who's excited about a Kansas-West Virginia title game (because that is just as likely as anything at this point).

Rant over, here's three games to watch.
Kentucky at Georgia: 12:30 p.m., Gameplan. Georgia needs this win badly if they want to have a chance for the SEC East bid. That loss to Tennessee in the beginning of October is really making them play harder right now than they should need to. You have to believe that Tennessee will beat Vanderbilt this week, which would put the two teams in a hypothetical tie if the Dawgs win. Hypothetical because (a) the tiebreaker goes to the Vols and (b) the Vols travel to Lexington Thanksgiving weekend. So, to summarize: Kentucky still matters. They can take the mystery out of the team that everyone will pick to lose to LSU and I'll pick to upset (just to be obnoxious).

Missouri at Kansas State 12:30 So, here's the thing, with Dixon going down, the Heisman is going to be McFadden (3 losses), Tebow (3 losses) or, well, who? How about Chase Daniel? Why NOT Chase Daniel? Consider this: He has at least one game-of-the-century next week in Kansas City, then a potential championship showdown with the Sooners, then the National Championship. He has as good of a path as anyone to strengthen his resume on the way to the voting and lead his team to great things. His numbers aren't too shabby either. 3300 yards, 26 touches and 9 picks. You'd take that for your team any day.

West Virginia at Cincinnati 7:45 p.m., ESPN Cheer for the Bearcats like you've never cheered before. The worst thing that I think can happen this season is the existence of the Big East in the national championship game because, frankly, they have done nothing to deserve it. Good teams beating mediocre teams is nothing better than great teams beating each other up. I'd put a one-loss Ohio State or Arizona State in ahead of the Mountaineers if LSU stumbles. No one in the Big East has been able to load the defensive box with a front seven as strong as USF's because, well, they just don't have the talent. There are plenty of other teams who have the athletes to force WVU to go vertical where they will be beaten.

We now return to our regularly scheduled program

I want to make a quick apology to all the pollers and "sponsors" of the BCRC/Bleachers Poll. Tragically, due to a massive workload, I was not able to crunch numbers this week and aggregate the Poll. So, I'm going to throw myself in front of the train and let you all pick apart my own Top Ten.

1. Oregon
2. Kansas
3. LSU
4. Oklahoma
5. West Virginia
6. Missou
7. Ohio State
8. Arizona State
9. Georgia
10 Hawaii

Why Oregon? By knocking off USC a few weeks ago, Oregon finally ended the Trojan Dynasty. By beating the Sun Devils handily in Eugene, Dennis Dixon likely sewed up the Heisman and the Pac-10 crowd. The loss against Cal is looking more flukey every week and the Duck defense has responded to the way the Bears went over, around and through them. I think, you put any team on the field, neutral location, the Ducks should be favored. What else should it take to be number one?

Kansas over LSU I like playing this game to describe Les Miles's idiocy against Auburn. A frickin' FLY lands on the football and LSU is a two loss team. So, maybe Kansas hasn't played outside the state of Kansas, and if it was Ohio State, I'd be knocking them. But they are passing the tests as they come. But did you see the way the offense responded against Nebraska? Oklahoma State? This team could gun sling with anyone. I think that a Kansas-Oregon game would be just as competitive as a LSU-Oregon game. My verdict of the 'hawks over the Tigers is based on the impressive way that Kansas has not backed down. Plus, there is a little anti-SEC bias in my head, because I think that "they beat each other up" is not a justification for so many of them to be ranked.

Conference Strength Look, I have three Big 12 teams in the top ten and two SEC teams. I am really tempted to drop West Virginia, but, for some reason, I can't do it. The Big East has really shown their true colors this year, and I'm glad that everyone is finally not buying Tranghese's Kool-Aid. The ACC is definitely in waiting. VTech will continue to be good. Florida State and Miami will bounce back. Those three are locked in to be top 15 within the next few years, consistently.

What about BC? I don't know. I was sure three weeks ago that Jags was building this program past the hump and into the elite, but now I'm sitting watching his recruiting and wondering if we are going to get the defensive athletes we need to have a solid D. The injuries don't help, right now, but that can't explain 42 points to Maryland. Here's my BCS conference rankings:

1. Pac 10
2. SEC
3. Big 12
4. ACC
5. Big Ten
6. Big East

And I would put the Big East lower if I could. I'll actually get three games to watch up tomorrow, I promise.

Editor's Note: BC in fact DOES control its own destiny. Tied with Clemson for the Atlantic lead with a two game lead, a win this weekend and the Eagles gain the tie breaker over Clemson and Wake and will be locked into Jacksonville.

Three Games to Watch Outside of College Park

So it seems that DL1 has not posted his three games to watch, so I thought I'd contribute a little recomendation actions.

There is a TON going on this weekend, even though most big teams are looking ahead to games next weekend (OSU/Michigan, USC/A.State, BC/Clemson) this weekend could be overlooked and there are some sleeper games that I think will provide hours of entertainment:

#4 Kansas at Oklahoma State (ABC 8pm): Mike Gundy is 40, he's a MAN. I know none of you will forget his tirade from earlier this year, but Kansas better not forget it either. Although undefeated Kansas has a better resume than the outsider Hawaii, their schedule has not been anything of a challenge. That being said, they have played their schedule and won, and you have to give them props for that, but they should look out for Mike Gundy's Cowboy offense.

Wake Forrest at #20 Clemson (ESPN2 12pm): A game with the balance in the ACC riding on it. Clemson's schitzo playing this year could turn the right way at the right time and turn it on for the last three games of the season and walk away with our ACC Title. That being said, this Wake team is much stronger than when we beat them earlier this year. This could be a very close game in Death Valley.

Illinois at #1 Ohio State (ABC 3:30pm): OSU could be caught looking past this game, and The Zookinator has a sleeper team on his hands. This could be the game that Juice Williams realizes his potential and takes down the mighty and understated Buckeye Defense. Or it could just be a stomping. Check it out.

As a little aside, almost some of the H&L team as well as the remainder of our "idiot brigade" are all in College Park at the game, so you may not hear from any of them until tomorrow or Monday. GO EAGLES.

O-Line U?

BC's O-line has almost always been incredible, producing several pro-leaguers and giving Boston College a nickname of "O-Line U". However, in my opinion, They have had a hard time the past few weeks, and along with play calling, are the reason why BC is no longer undefeated. We're still getting some recognition, though, as is shown on College Football News.com, where columnist Richard Cirminiello ranked the top O-lines in Division I College Football this year, using a "top-secret formula for offensive lines, using a bunch of team stats, such as sacks allowed, yards per carry, and tackles for loss allowed". Here's what he has to say about BC:

Although the Eagles haven’t been running the ball with the authority of recent teams, led by hulking LT Gosder Cherilus, they’ve built a cocoon around QB Matt Ryan, who’s having an All-American type year.

Personally, I just hope that the O-line can keep it up and string together wins over our next three games, and mask their poor performances dating all the way back to the Notre Dame game (7 false starts!). Live up to your name, boys. Show the ACC why you're going to win it.

BCRC/Bleacher's Poll

1. Ohio State University (16) 0.993 [Last week: 1]
2. LSU 0.988 [3]
3. Oregon (1) 0.875 [4]
4. Kansas 0.859 [8]
5. Oklahoma 0.856 [6]
6. West Virginia 0.812 [7]
7. Missouri 0.748 [9]
8. Boston College 0.687 [2]
9. Arizona State 0.551 [5]
10 Virginia Tech 0.433 [10]

Others Receiving Votes: Georgia, 0.245; Hawaii, 0.113; UConn, 0.040

Ranking One Loss Teams I'm doing a one tiered rant this week because, well, this has been driving me nuts since the polls came out.

How do you rank one-loss teams? I think this is one of the hardest questions to deal with considering this year's season. We are down to so few undefeateds that many people are questioning if those are even the best teams left, meaning the growing number of one-loss schools is jumping over them. I hate that the "resume" mentality only hurts those who had to make the climb. For example:

LSU lost to 3-loss Kentucky, but because so many gave them the SEC crown after the first Thursday night against Mississippi State, those who can't part with the logic that the SEC is tops refuse to back off the Bayou Bengals. Do I think they're great? Yes, even I have them ranked two, but now I'm mad at myself for doing it. On that Saturday in Lexington, a LOT of teams could have beaten the Tigers, not to mention how a strange gust of win could have made them a two-loss team at the hands of Auburn. They'd still be ranked second. Even though they'll be playing, at best, a three-loss team in the SEC Championship.

Oregon lost to a 3-loss Cal, but given Cal's lofty preseason ranking (please don't read my Pac-10 preview from last June), two weeks in a row over massive Pac-10 opponents have locked them into the "BCS Waiting Room." If tOSU falls, who doesn't think that it will be a Oregon-LSU showdown? But now, they can coast into the Civil War and avoid playing a Pac-10 Championship.

Oklahoma lost to a 5-loss Colorado team when they decided they were only playing three quarters. They still have a great QB and a great coach in Stoops, but do wins in the Red River Shootout and over Missouri justify this ranking?

Boston College lost to a 3-loss Florida State team who beat an SEC opponent (why does that only count for everyone else) but lost to Miami, Wake and Clemson. Wake and Clemson are underrated this year, and BC will be caught dead if it thinks it's going to walk into Death Valley in a few weeks and roll over the Tigers.

And ASU lost to a 1-loss Oregon team that has a Qube whom everyone has already named the Heisman winner (even if he basically plays Running Back). Even in our poll, the Devils are all the way down. The same logic goes to Missouri. It seems that they are getting punished for the one-loss of the one-loss to whom they lost.

How do we rank then? Locked into preseason jadedness? Or how the story tellers say we should?

Three Games to Watch Outside of Chestnut Hill

The one thing I've noticed, this season has had so many great story lines that picking three games has actually been pretty difficult. In fact, I make take some East Coast Bias Crap from this, but I'm actually leaving off the big showdown in Eugene. Why? I wonder about the Pac-10, that's all. I like the style of football, I enjoy the high scoring games but I think that the interconference match ups this year have been timely mismatches (Oregon-Michigan, USC-Nebraska, USC-ND). Those stompings over "traditionals" have made the Pac-10 look better, even though at the time Michigan was reeling and Nebraska and ND are way down.

Anyway, watch it if you want, and I may try to catch the first half, but here's some other games to pay attention to:

#21 Wisconsin at #1 Ohio State Noon, Big Ten Network. Back a few months ago, I labeled this as Wisconsin's chance to steal the conference championship. Since losing two straight at the beginning of October, the Badgers have had two wins over at N. Illinois and Indiana which are basically unimpressive (how did they get back into the top 25?). Here's the difference between Wisco and last week's opponent for the Buckeyes, though: PJ Hill. Wisconsin actually has a chance to control the game clock, and that's really the only way that they will be able to win in Columbus.

#24 Wake Forest at #23 UVA Noon, Gameplan. Who is really surprised that Tom O'Brien got that "How did you win that game?" happened this year...again? Here's why this game matters: UVA still has a chance in the Coastal and Wake still has a chance in the Atlantic. Whoever loses is probably eliminated from Jacksonville. Riley Skinner has gotten back on track, but a swarming Hoos defense is going to be vicious. Could be one helluva game.

#3 LSU at #17 Alabama 5 p.m., CBS. Saban Bowl. LSU's last SoS test, well, forever. The clusterfrick that is the SEC East has made the SEC Championship less than exciting and a possible detriment to the computer rankings. I don't think that LSU can leap an undefeated team because of the way the schedule drops off. This game is also probably the last chance the Bayou Bengals have to be tested until the first week of December. Does the Tide have a chance?

BCRC/Bleacher's Poll

1. Ohio State University (8) 0.975 [Last Week: 1]
2. Boston College (8) 0.973 [2]
3. LSU 0.893 [3]
4. Oregon 0.860 [6]
5. Arizona State 0.843 [7]
6. Oklahoma 0.793 [4]
7. West Virginia 0.778 [5]
8. Kansas 0.758 [10]
9. Missouri 0.558 [NR]
10 Va Tech 0.285 [8]

Others Receiving Votes: Georgia, 0.245; Hawaii, 0.160; Michigan, 0.043; Texas, 0.040


I'm going to break it down H-style this week in a three tiered look based on the groupings. The top two, the middle pack and the "9th through Others Receiving Votes" category.

Photo Finish at the Top: You want to talk about a close one? The 2 thousandths of a point that separate BC and tOSU is probably the closest in two years that this poll has ever been at the top. Where does it come down to? One single voter putting BC at third instead of second behind OSU. That's it. Why shouldn't it be close, though? The voters who went BC argue that it was the lack of OSU's schedule strength. If I was a guessing person, the voters who went OSU (like I personally did) were banking on it partially out of hazard as it comes to giving the Eagles the number one spot. I will defend myself and say that even though I gave OSU the top ranking, I don't believe either BC, OSU or anyone else has played like the number one team in the country.

"Can you press three please?": Slots 3-8 are inhabited by a group of teams who I honestly believe could fit in any order in that group. In fact, the squads who finish in those spots had an average of six different rankings each. LSU is probably likely to stay third (barring a loss this week in Tuscaloosa, and I think there are lots of Saban fans in Chestnut Hill right now), but the other five will shift a lot this weekend and at least one of them will be either at 9, 10 or in the "Other Receiving Votes." Which leads us to...

9, 10 and "Other Receiving Votes.": One poller jokingly suggested he would have Michigan in his top ten this week and then "added" them at 11. Another actually threw them in at 9. I laughed at both. Also, notice the reluctance of voters to remove VT from the top ten (we are not factored into SOS factors, but we would like to believe it), Hawaii's inability to get into the top ten, lack of respect toward Missou and the pre-drawn conclusion that Georgia will probably choke again. I love the bottom of the rankings sometimes.

Exciting stuff this week. Guest post from Seminole Blogger Bill K. over at Scalp 'em will be up tomorrow morning, hopefully a Heisman update before the weekend (or probably after), 3G2W on Friday. And those are just from me. Lots of other stuff from the H&L crew to come as well.

Three Games to Watch After Drying Off from Blacksburg

Please see my post from earlier this week regarding the other three games to watch. I think it's pretty obvious. And, I do have some pictures from Blacksburg last night which I will put up later.

USC at Oregon 3:00 p.m., Versus (or some other random channel). Dennis Dixon, come on down, you're the next contestant on Prove Your Heisman Worthy. Just do it against the Pac-10-Team-of-the-Decade. Drew Carey may or may not be involved. Remember to spay and neuter your pets.

Ohio State at Penn State 8:00 p.m., ABC. PSU+Homecoming-Any chance on Offense against OSU's defense+OSU lacking a serious offense production+Happy Valley White Out=Lots of People in Chestnut Hill becoming temporary Nittany Lion fans.

Cal at Arizona State 10:15 p.m. (East Coast Time), Fox? Versus? Pac-10...seriously, get a real network. Cal's lost two straight. One by a QB who doesn't know how to throw away. One by a defense who forgot that UCLA might be good even if they lost to Notre Dame. Think they want a shot to regain national relevancy? Although, I have been to many many night games at the Stadium. It's going to be a treat. Even if the band looks like it spells "GOD EVILS" before the game instead of "GO DEVILS."

BCRC/Bleacher's Poll

1. Ohio State University (13) 0.989 [Last Week: 1]
2. Boston College (4) 0.956 [2]
3. LSU (1) 0.920 [5]
4. Oklahoma 0.902 [4]
5. West Virginia 0.784 [8]
6t Oregon 0.740 [6]
6t Arizona State 0.740 [10]
8. Va Tech 0.680 [NR]
9. Florida 0.462 [NR]
10 Kansas 0.391 [NR]

Others Receiving Votes: USC, 0.371; South Florida, 0.156; Missouri, 0.071; Hawaii, 0.038

Prove it. LSU still gets first place votes for one reason (and this, to me, goes well beyond this poll): Les Miles and his Huevoes of Steel. More importantly, they've played the prove it game. The other Number-and-Ohs haven't yet. Well, this week is probably a good time for ESPN to come up with a corny name like "Showdown Saturday/Thursday". So, here's an interesting debate: would OSU winning at Penn State be bigger than BC winning at Lane Stadium? What about Oregon hosting USC? Cal and ASU?

Here's the thing, this is what those talking heads get paid to do. But, they way I rank them (bias partially included, is the following).

1. BC-VT: If BC goes to Lane and wins, they will have knocked off one of the greatest teams of the last decade in their house on the night that they basically invented for college football. On paper, BC should win this game. But, games aren't played on paper. The thing for the Eagles, though, is that if they pull this off, the rest of the season seems a little bit less daunting. This is that final push. This is the game BC hasn't been able to win for the past five seasons. This may be the most important game in BC history.

2. USC-Oregon: Dennis Dixon can (a) get in the fast lane for the Rose Bowl and (b) get in the fast lane for New York City with this win. Oh yeah, it also would officially end the USC Dynasty in the Pac-10. I think that's kind of important.

3. OSU-PSU: Ohio State has lost 4 of the last 6 times they went to Happy Valley. The Buckeyes have already won the State Championship of Ohio. Now they might want to consider playing teams from other locations.

4. Cal-ASU: I honestly believe that the Devils lose two of their next four. This may be one of them. But I think if it comes down to a shoot-out (which it will), they don't have the defense that UCLA does.

Boomer Sooner The one question that has kind of fallen off of the wagon (pun intended) is what the Sooners will need to do to get to the championship. I mean, they too only have one loss, like LSU, and are arguably the most talented team in the NCAA. Even with that Big 12 Championship game (in which they will likely appear), it will take losses by all of the undefeated teams for them to get in. Considering they'd likely have to give one of them to Kansas, that would rule out the Hawks. But undefeated OSU, BC or ASU would definitely stay above the Sooners. The Bayoux Bengals, though, sit in a better position. Although the chances that they stave off another loss in the SEC only last as long as Les Miles has a pair.

Bye Week Thoughts: The BCS

I used to be a proponent of a playoff system, but now I have seen the light. The problem is, I may have seen it too late. And it's not because my Eagles are having a great season. More than anything, BC has survived close games and conference opponents. But the trick is that they made it through with the W. I did not realize everyone having a chance was a bad thing. So, to enemies of parity, I direct this post to you.

A playoff system would turn "2007: Year of the Upset" into "year where lots of upsets happened."

Why? I have a few complaints against destroying the #1/#2 thing. First and foremost: it would make sure a season like this never happened again.

So, logically, you have to think that an 8- or 12- or 16- team playoff (whatever is decided) HAS to include the champions of each respective conference. Sure, this would include the #1 and #2 teams in the country. Right? But lets look at teams currently still currently in mathematical first place (tie breaker losers are sitting down) in the big six conferences:

ACC: Boston College, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Big East: UConn
Big 12: Kansas, Oklahoma
Big Ten: Michigan, Ohio State
Pac 10: ASU
SEC: LSU, Alabama, Kentucky

For what it's worth, ASU still has yet to play ANY of the one-loss teams in the Pac-10. So, USC, who lost to cellar dweller Stanford, could probably still even be considered a front runner. Same goes for Cal. And the Big East shouldn't really count because they've only had 10 games between the seven teams. I'd likely give the advantage/tiebreaker to Rutgers.

Even still, here's my point: USC, Michigan would be contenders for the national championship in a playoff system. That makes sense.

And how do you fill out the other spots? Someone would get left home. I could easily see it being either Oregon or ASU or Kansas. There's only room for two more, and if you have teams coming in from well outside the top 15, a team with a solid resume gets hurt for being in a good conference. Imagine if LSU has two losses this season, both to Kentucky, but had to sit home out of a playoff because Arizona State's loss in Los Angeles kept them more appealing.

If we think separating the second best team in the country from the third is difficult, how much smaller is the margin between six and seven?

So, that's reason one, that teams will get title shots who don't deserve one while contenders sit on the couch. You are telling me that this would be an exciting playoff system?

So, that's logical reason. Here's the emotional reason: the David and Goliath Factor.

No matter how bad Stanford finishes this season, those players will have a badge of pride over their win at USC. Appa State, even if it is on its way to another National Championship in I-AA, will be recognized for the win over Michigan. Why? Because they took the wind out of the sails of those teams and knocked them down a peg. They ruined seasons and championship dreams.

In the playoff system, those are just surprising upsets.

Let's put it in terms of some BC History. The 1994 Notre Dame team still would have made the playoffs that year. They still could (and likely would) have won those games and a championship. Do you think Boston College fans would be as nearly as nostalgic about a game 15 years later if Notre Dame could still say they got the championship that year anyway?

The chance to make a dent in a rival's (or non-rival, for that matter) season is a driving force in the underdog special. No one cares about regular season upsets in the NFL. The playoffs render most Sunday match-ups as passing interest, and I would argue that fantasy sports drive a lot of interest in games not featuring a fan's favorite team. As it stands right now, every Saturday matters. Every Saturday is one round of the season-long playoff to be the last team standing.

Why take that away?

Here's my final point, and this is the passionate argument: people only want the change now because they don't like seeing the current top ten. The old guard is getting invaded and they never want to think for a second that Boston College, Kentucky or South Florida deserves a chance for the national championship.

Hey, if you can't regain the glory days through billion dollar facilities and 70,000-strong Spring Games, why not change the rules? Sorry that the 40,000 who fill up Wake Forest every week aren't worthy of your BCS pinnacle, but you guys built the system to showcase your Alabama vs. Nebraska, USC vs. Michigan and Florida State vs. Penn State.

I would like to apologize, personally, that the dozens of millions of fans from the other 100 schools in division I-A think we deserve a chance to win it the same way you did.

Oh, and firing Bill Callahan will really help.

Three Games To Watch During The Bye Week

The team has Friday-Saturday-Sunday off. That means lots of time for football watching. The thing is, so does half the country. Let's get it started, shall we?

Louisville @ UConn Friday, 8 p.m., ESPN. One of these two teams is in first place in the Big East. If you would have called this one at the beginning of the season, you'd get a medal. But here's the truth about the Big East scheduling right now: there have been a total of 9 conference games (including last night's Rutgers/USF game). The home team is 2-7. Think that this scheduling thing is about to bite Tranghese in the rear end? Louisville will win this game. By a lot.

#12 California at UCLA Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ABC Regional. So, UCLA has two embarrassing losses on the season. California has one because their red shirt freshmen Qube who went all Chris Webber during his first start. UCLA has played so schizophrenically this season it's not funny. Four hours of Dwight Schrute "What Type of Bear is Better" jokes. I'm really excited. Does either team even have a QB? Cal puts up Utah like numbers on the Bruins. I feel it.

#19 Virginia at Maryland UVA may be 6-1 but I believe they have a combined total margin-of-victory of six (and yes, that's intentional exaggeration). If they can win against the Terps, though, they actually have a chance to surprise the Coastal side of the ACC. All it would take is a win against VT and they likely have the upper hand (given the potential that the Coastal winner will have one loss in conference minimum). Homecoming in College Park, two pretty even offenses. This might actually be exciting.

BCRC/Bleachers Poll

1. Ohio State (12) 0.984 [Last Week: 3]
2. Boston College (3) 0.942 [4]
3. South Florida (3) 0.896 [6]
4. Oklahoma 0.782 [5]
5. LSU 0.762 [1]
6. Oregon 0.736 [7]
7. South Carolina 0.671 [9]
8. West Virginia 0.584 [8]
9. Kentucky 0.516 [NR]
10. Arizona State 0.387 [NR]

Others Receiving Votes: Va Tech, 0.351; USC, 0.196; Cal, 0.151; Kansas, 0.124; Florida, 0.082; Hawaii, 0.036

Conference Pride Virginia Tech was probably the closest any number 11 team has been to the number 10 spot. I have a theory. The BC bias isn't appearing in the BC rank. No one is jumping over zealously to give the Eagles the number one spot. What's the deal? Well, I think the pollers are happy to give credit to our upcoming opponents. More than half of the voters put the Hokies in the top ten despite the fact that everybody but Beamer and the Lunch Pail itself are possibly injured.

Rage Against the Machine Bias point number two: some people were really upset at the BCS computers. USF received two seventh place votes which effectively kept the distance between them and Boston College, even considering the same amount of first place votes. For honesty's sake, I had them at 5th.

Wooah We're Halfway There I just need to paste one of the pollers pre-season top tens here so everyone can see that, yes, someone did call this:
Vito
1. USC
2. Florida
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin
5. Arkansas
6. The Ohio State
7. Texas
8. West Virginia
9. Nebraska
10 Boston College

I did laugh at him for Nebraska though when I got off the phone with him a few minutes ago. Yes, one poller had BC in his top ten at the beginning of the season. I mean, he was 3 for 10 overall, but I'll give him a little credit.

I'm crunching the Heisman numbers tonight, so, look for those tomorrow or Thursday.

3 Games to Watch Outside of South Bend

I'm off to South Bend to cheer loud and proud for Boston College, so, let's keep it short and sweet.

UCF at #5 South Florida: Noon, Saturday, ESPNU. Wait, South Florida still doesn't have another Big East game? Really? So you are telling me someone in the Big East front loaded a schedule? Let me tell you how the season plays out for the Bulls. They lose in New Brunswick because Rutgers has a decent offensive line (assuming Ray Rice doesn't break by then). They lose hosting Louisville since no one ever doubted Louisville to score, just their defense to prevent it against the air. The Big East champion finishes 10-2.

#19 Wisconsin at Penn State 3:30 p.m., Saturday, ABC. Penn State's homecoming plus a one-dimensional Badger team (that I picked as a sleeper in the Big Ten, I'm an idiot) equals two consecutive losses Wisco. I'm beginning to think that Ohio State is going to get through the Big Ten without being tested in the slightest and I actually give them the fast track to New Orleans right now.

Washington at #14 Arizona State 10:15 p.m., Saturday, Fox Sports Net or Versus or something random like that. Remember a few weeks ago when that Washington/Ohio State game was supposed to matter? Do you think Husky fans, though, are going to run Tyrone out of town and then blame him for Notre Dame's poor recruiting? Arizona State has a great new coach and I have at least one or two hometown fans who believe that the Devils will knock off Cal when the Golden Bears come to Tempe in a few weeks. But watch, they'll still find a way to lose the Territorial Cup against U of A.

BONUS GAME
#4 Boston College at Notre Dame 3:30 p.m., Saturday, The Peacock. Something tells me that there are about 85 players and 15,000 BC alums who are going to make an appearance in South Bend ready to absolutely obliterate the Irish. I'm gonna give the ND offense a touchdown or two now that they are finally shaping up a little, but I don't think they have the guns to stop the BC pass, which will turn into a big AC running day. No score predictions, but I just don't think the ND offense will be able to hold the ball long enough to prevent BC from scoring often.

BCRC/Bleacher's Poll

1. LSU (17) 1.000 [Last Week: 1]
2. Cal 0.946 [3]
3. Ohio State 0.922 [5]
4. Boston College 0.873 [6]
5. Oklahoma 0.802 [9]
6. South Florida 0.781 [10]
7. Oregon 0.678 [NR]
8. West Virginia 0.541 [NR]
9. South Carolina 0.494 [NR]
10 USC 0.478 [2]

Others Receiving Votes: Va Tech, 0.202; Missouri, 0.188; Florida, 0.172; Arizona State, 0.085; Hawaii, 0.038

Top Heavy And I don't mean in a heavyweight kind of way. The way this poll is figured out is much like every other one. That is, I get to see everyone's top ten. 2/3 of the poll had the exact same top four. The major split didn't occur until voters had to pick between the Sooners and the Bulls for the top spot.

Welcome Back The top ten is becoming a revolving door for some one loss teams. While Oregon did move up a little from last week, the big change is West Virginia picking up a lot of steam from a win up in the Carrier Dome. Short term memory? Is South Florida that good? Is it just hard to keep West Virginia out of the top ten when they win like they used to?

"The Bulls-Eye Just Gets Bigger" To quote Jags, rankings don't matter. It just means the bulls-eye gets bigger.